{
  "schema_version": "1.2.0",
  "rubric_version": "1.1",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)",
  "record": {
    "id": "O-0201",
    "slug": "ai-futures-project",
    "title": "AI Futures Project",
    "aliases": [],
    "status": "published",
    "last_reviewed": "2026-09-25",
    "review_interval_days": 90,
    "steward": null,
    "provenance": {
      "drafted_by": "ai",
      "reviewed_by": [
        "codex-review"
      ]
    },
    "risk_flags": [],
    "flags": [],
    "kind": "research-org",
    "homepage": "https://www.aifutures.org/",
    "one_liner": "A small research group forecasting the future of AI; publisher of the AI 2040 scenario, including an inference-only verification plan.",
    "sources": [
      {
        "source": "S-3608",
        "supports": "small research group forecasting the future of AI funded by donations and grants"
      },
      {
        "source": "S-0067",
        "supports": "AI 2040 verification plan: isolated inference units, taps, recomputation, memory wipes"
      },
      {
        "source": "S-1511",
        "supports": "companion page: component status, open problems, organizations working on verification"
      },
      {
        "source": "S-1410",
        "supports": "covert AI projects supplement: waste heat, detection, upstream supply-chain audits"
      }
    ],
    "type": "organization",
    "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/organizations/ai-futures-project/",
    "source_file": "content/organizations/ai-futures-project.md",
    "flags_all": [],
    "body_markdown": "The AI Futures Project describes itself as \"a small research group forecasting the future of AI, funded by charitable donations and grants\" [[S-3608]]. Its AI 2040 scenario has supplements on verification:\n\n- Dean's verification plan would convert data centres into isolated inference units, copy their traffic with network taps, recompute random samples and wipe memory periodically, so that only verified inference outputs persist [[S-0067]]. See [[I-0011]], [[M-0014]], [[M-0013]], [[M-0001]] and [[M-0015]].\n- A companion \"Get involved\" page tracks the status and open problems of each component, and lists organizations working on verification [[S-1511]].\n- Halstead and Larsen discuss how a covert AI project might be hidden and detected, treating waste heat as the main constraint on hiding a facility [[S-1410]]; see [[M-0020]]. They propose auditing the semiconductor supply chain upstream to reconstruct past chip production [[S-1410]]; see [[M-0019]].",
    "body_text": "The AI Futures Project describes itself as \"a small research group forecasting the future of AI, funded by charitable donations and grants\" [S-3608]. Its AI 2040 scenario has supplements on verification: - Dean's verification plan would convert data centres into isolated inference units, copy their traffic with network taps, recompute random samples and wipe memory periodically, so that only verified inference outputs persist [S-0067]. See AI 2040 inference-only verification stack, Bandwidth limits and compartmentalization, Network taps and certifiers, Sampled inference recomputation and Memory wiping and proofs of secure erasure. - A companion \"Get involved\" page tracks the status and open problems of each component, and lists organizations working on verification [S-1511]. - Halstead and Larsen discuss how a covert AI project might be hidden and detected, treating waste heat as the main constraint on hiding a facility [S-1410]; see Remote detection of data centres. They propose auditing the semiconductor supply chain upstream to reconstruct past chip production [S-1410]; see Chip registries and manufacturing records.",
    "referenced_by": [
      {
        "id": "M-0014",
        "title": "Bandwidth limits and compartmentalization",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/mechanisms/bandwidth-limits-and-compartmentalization/"
      },
      {
        "id": "M-0019",
        "title": "Chip registries and manufacturing records",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/mechanisms/chip-registries-and-manufacturing-records/"
      },
      {
        "id": "M-0015",
        "title": "Memory wiping and proofs of secure erasure",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/mechanisms/memory-wiping-and-secure-erasure/"
      },
      {
        "id": "M-0013",
        "title": "Network taps and certifiers",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/mechanisms/network-taps-and-certifiers/"
      },
      {
        "id": "M-0020",
        "title": "Remote detection of data centres",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/mechanisms/remote-detection-of-data-centres/"
      },
      {
        "id": "M-0003",
        "title": "Whole-workload recomputation (reproducible packets)",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/mechanisms/reproducible-computation-packets/"
      },
      {
        "id": "M-0001",
        "title": "Sampled inference recomputation",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/mechanisms/sampled-inference-recomputation/"
      },
      {
        "id": "I-0011",
        "title": "AI 2040 inference-only verification stack",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/implementations/ai-2040-inference-only-verification-plan/"
      },
      {
        "id": "S-1511",
        "title": "Get Involved in Verification",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/sources/ai-futures-get-involved-verification/"
      },
      {
        "id": "S-3608",
        "title": "AI Futures Project homepage",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/sources/ai-futures-homepage/"
      },
      {
        "id": "S-0067",
        "title": "Verification Plan",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/sources/dean-verification-plan/"
      },
      {
        "id": "S-1410",
        "title": "Covert AI Projects",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/sources/halstead-covert-ai-projects/"
      }
    ]
  }
}